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Web services looks like delivering on e-business’ promise, says David Cotterill.
Standards deliver
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David Cotterill: efficiency gain is biggest driver
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The GartnerGroup’s ‘hype cycle’ is one of the most useful conceptual models when trying to explain technology trends. It tracks the visibility of a particular technology over time.
A new technology quickly builds up visibility to a point dubbed ‘peak of inflated expectations’ (think 3G at the time when the licences were auctioned), then fails to live up to its promise and crashes to near invisibility, culminating in the ‘trough of disillusionment’. It then begins a far slower ascent, during which it delivers real value over two phases, named ‘slope of enlightenment’ – as people understand what the once over-hyped technology can realistically deliver – and a ‘plateau of productivity’ (think current-day enterprise resource planning).
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Consultants' Advisory 2002
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